Today’s Austin Housing Market Isn’t Just Cooling—It’s Redefining the Landscape for Buyers and Sellers Alike.

As of July 21, 2025, the Austin real estate market continues to demonstrate a structural shift in activity, inventory, and pricing—indicators that speak not just to seasonal trends, but to a recalibration of buyer psychology, affordability thresholds, and the post-pandemic housing cycle reset. Active listings stand at 18,001, just 75 shy of the all-time high reached less than a month ago. While the rate of inventory growth has slowed slightly, it remains historically elevated. This volume of inventory, coupled with a Months of Inventory (MOI) figure of 6.43, signals sustained pressure on home values and sets the tone for a market clearly tilting in favor of buyers.

The significance of 57.8% of all listings experiencing at least one price drop cannot be overstated. In high-velocity markets, price reductions tend to cluster in weaker submarkets or condition-challenged homes. But today’s figures indicate widespread pricing fatigue across virtually every price point and location. This isn't an isolated trend but rather a systemic response to two dominant forces: persistent affordability constraints and eroding buyer urgency. The Activity Index, now at 19.5%, has dropped 13.1% year over year. That’s a steep decline that puts downward pressure on contract velocity and lengthens market time.

Months of Inventory is a metric that often lags but tells the clearest story about balance between supply and demand. A neutral MOI is around 4.5 months for Austin, based on the 25-year average. We’re now at 6.43 months, which is a full 17.7% higher than the same time last year. That number alone is substantial, but when paired with weak pending activity and a growing inventory base, the implications become sharper. Price support levels will continue to erode unless buyer activity strengthens. Given the broader economic conditions and borrowing cost environment, there’s little to suggest that resurgence is imminent.

Pending listings for July 2025 currently sit at 4,350, a modest 2.6% lower than this time last year. But the cumulative pending contracts from January to July, totaling 25,171, tell a deeper story. That figure represents a year-over-year decline of 9.9% and is still 1.7% below the long-term average. The divergence between new listings and pending contracts is stark. Year to date, Austin has accumulated a net difference of 7,270 more new listings than pending contracts—the largest such gap recorded since 2004. The new listing-to-pending ratio for 2025 is 0.67, well below the 25-year average of 0.81. In practical terms, this means for every 100 homes listed, only 67 are making it into contract. That’s a huge structural imbalance and a red flag for sellers banking on quick offers or price resilience.

On the sales side, there’s no question that we’re past the peak. The number of sold properties from January to July stands at 17,834, down 5.0% year over year. However, when compared to historical norms, this is still 7.3% above the long-term average—suggesting that despite the slowdown, buyer appetite has not disappeared entirely. The nuance, though, lies in the price points and motivations. The top 25th percentile of home prices is down only 1.19% from last year, whereas the bottom 25th percentile has dropped 4.28%. This trend supports the idea that higher-income buyers—less sensitive to interest rates—are still transacting, while price-sensitive segments are struggling.

Median pricing has undergone a meaningful correction. The current median sold price is $445,500, a steep 19.0% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price sits at $590,836, down 13.36% from its $681,939 peak. Importantly, the market’s decline isn’t just relative to the pandemic-era highs. The 36-month price change—measuring against prices three years prior—is at -13.5%, indicating that even those who bought in mid-2022 may now be underwater.

To contextualize this correction, we can use the 25-year historical appreciation rate of 4.938% to project future recovery timelines. Assuming the current median price of $445,500 is the bottom, it would take approximately 55 months—until January 2030—for prices to climb back to $551,070. This long runway reinforces the importance of pricing strategy for sellers and realistic expectations for buyers. For those buying today, especially investors or long-term owners, the opportunity lies in securing assets below historical value curves.

One of the most important metrics to watch going forward is the Sold-to-Active ratio, which currently stands at 17.83%. The historical average is 31.92%, and a ratio below 10% is typically viewed as symptomatic of a buyer’s market. While we’re not quite at that threshold, we’re trending toward it. If inventory continues to rise or sales slow further, that line may be crossed—putting even more downward pressure on pricing.

Another telling figure is the Market Flow Score, now at 5.16. This score, normalized on a 0 to 10 scale, is designed to gauge market momentum. A score of 6.61 represents the historical average. The fact that we’re more than a full point below average further confirms what other indicators are showing: the Austin market has lost its velocity.

Looking at geographic differences across the region, the range in Months of Inventory is particularly revealing. Smithville, Marble Falls, and Lago Vista are showing MOI readings of 11.0 months—markets effectively in a freeze. Even Austin proper, often the most resilient market in the region, has climbed to 6.95 months, up 33.3% year over year. Areas like Georgetown, Leander, and Cedar Park are experiencing similar surges in inventory with only modest buyer pull-through.

The macro takeaway here is that sellers are still listing aggressively, but buyers aren’t meeting them at the table. While cumulative new listings from January to July have risen 2.8% year over year, and are a full 22.6% above average, the buyers needed to absorb that supply simply aren’t there. As a result, inventory is piling up, particularly in suburban and exurban markets where price drops are the most prevalent.

For those in the industry, this is a moment of strategic reorientation. Price positioning, listing quality, and negotiation readiness are no longer just “nice to haves”—they are the only way listings will survive in this slower market. For buyers, especially those leveraging cash or low-interest financing, this is one of the most advantageous positions in years. With 57.8% of listings already seeing a price drop and inventory rising week after week, the leverage has shifted decisively.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for July 21, 2025.