Austin’s Real Estate Market Is Testing New Highs—and Buyers Are Quietly Gaining Power

As of July 18, 2025, the Austin-area housing market continues to send a clear message: inventory is swelling, price reductions are prevalent, and market velocity is slowing. With active residential listings now at 17,907—just 169 shy of the June 27 record high—this summer is shaping up to be one of the most inventory-heavy periods in Austin’s modern real estate history. Sellers hoping for quick offers are confronting longer market times and increased competition, while buyers are enjoying growing leverage in negotiations.

The pace of new listings remains elevated, with cumulative year-to-date new listings reaching 32,087, marking a 1.7% increase year-over-year and a significant 21.3% above the long-term average. However, the other side of the equation—buyer activity—has not kept pace. Year-to-date cumulative pending sales sit at 24,901, reflecting a 10.9% drop compared to last year and 2.7% below historical norms. The market has added 7,186 more listings than pendings so far in 2025. That divergence is one of the clearest indicators of the supply-demand imbalance.

The Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio now stands at 0.58, a stark departure from the 25-year average of 0.81. This means that for every 100 new listings, only 58 are converting into pending contracts—an unusually sluggish absorption rate for a peak summer month. Buyers are not in a hurry. Meanwhile, sellers are increasingly forced to compete on price, as 57.8% of all active listings have now seen at least one price reduction, with some submarkets (like Georgetown and Pflugerville) seeing over 63% of listings drop.

Months of Inventory has reached 6.37 across the metro, up 16.9% from this time last year, when inventory was already elevated at 5.45. This is a pivotal metric: a balanced market typically ranges from 4.0 to 6.0 months. Today’s level places Austin firmly in buyer territory. Among cities seeing the sharpest inventory expansions year-over-year are Jarrell (+105.2%), Manchaca (+102.6%), and Cedar Creek (+50.6%). The City of Austin itself has seen a 25.3% increase in inventory compared to July 2024 and nearly 50% growth year-to-date.

Drilling deeper into pricing, we continue to see corrections at the top and bottom quartiles. The bottom 25th percentile has declined 4.41% in median price and 5.43% in price per square foot since July 2024, underscoring the softening in entry-level product. At the high end, the top 25th percentile is essentially flat, up just 0.24% in price and down 0.69% in $/SqFt. The lack of upward price movement, even among premium listings, reinforces the market’s shift from acceleration to stagnation.

The overall median sold price now stands at $450,000—down from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. That $100,000 decline represents an 18.18% correction from peak value. The average sold price has fallen to $596,270, down 12.56% from the high-water mark of $681,939. Price declines of this magnitude are rare in Austin’s real estate history, especially over such a condensed timeframe. When benchmarked against 36-month trailing medians, prices are now 12.62% below where they were three years ago.

Using Austin’s long-term compound appreciation rate of 4.981%, a return to peak valuation would require roughly 52 months—placing the recovery timeline around October 2029 if current trends hold. That forecast assumes no additional declines, which remains an open question depending on broader economic conditions and rate policy.

Sales volume has also weakened. July’s closed sales totaled 2,771, down from the monthly average in prior years. Year-to-date, 17,896 homes have sold across the Austin metro—down 4.7% from 2024, though still 7.7% above the 25-year average. However, when adjusted for population growth and Realtor count, the performance looks worse: only 702 homes sold per 100,000 residents and 961 per 1,000 agents—down 7.0% and 24.4% year-over-year, respectively. This underscores the declining velocity of the marketplace relative to the size of the buyer and agent pool.

The Sold-to-Active Ratio stands at just 17.83%, well below the historical average of 31.92%. That figure alone confirms buyers are gaining ground. The lower the ratio, the more oversupplied the market is relative to the number of closings. Today’s ratio suggests that nearly five listings exist for every one sale. Similarly, the Market Flow Score, currently at 5.16, is significantly under the long-term average of 6.61. This score, which reflects both supply and buyer behavior, further validates the market’s slow-flow status.

While it’s tempting to point to seasonal patterns for relief, the persistent gap between new listings and pending contracts year-to-date tells a more structural story. Price resistance, elevated mortgage rates, and buyer hesitancy continue to restrain the conversion of listings into sales. Builders and resale sellers alike are competing for a pool of cautious buyers who are increasingly unwilling to overpay.

This market is becoming more nuanced at the micro level as well. While some pockets remain resilient—often driven by scarcity or localized demand—broad-based softness is hard to ignore. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the market can reestablish balance through pricing adjustments or whether excess inventory will continue to balloon into the fall.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 18, 2025.