Austin’s housing market is teetering on the edge of a full buyer’s market, as record-high inventory, waning demand, and falling prices reshape the landscape across the region as of June 24, 2025.

The latest data highlights the most pronounced market imbalance Austin has seen in over a decade. Active residential listings have surged to 17,835, just shy of the all-time high of 17,937 reached on June 23, 2025. This unprecedented level of inventory reflects not only a sharp reversal from the extreme seller’s market of 2021–2022 but also a growing challenge for sellers navigating declining buyer demand and mounting competition.

Price reductions have become a defining feature of the current landscape. More than 56% of all active listings have seen at least one price drop, with specific areas such as Liberty Hill, Jarrell, and Lago Vista reporting reduction rates above 60%. Even within the City of Austin, 57.1% of homes on the market have reduced prices, illustrating the widespread nature of the market correction.

The Activity Index, which measures buyer activity by comparing pending sales to the total of active and pending listings, remains at 20.4%, a steep 17.1% decline from this time last year. This figure underscores how rapidly buyer engagement has deteriorated as affordability challenges, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty continue to weigh on purchasing decisions.

Months of Inventory—a key metric for gauging market balance—has climbed to 6.30 months, up 18.6% from 5.31 months in June 2024. At this level, the market is firmly in neutral territory and rapidly approaching the 7-month threshold that traditionally signals a definitive buyer’s market. For context, many surrounding communities are already well beyond that point. Marble Falls, Cedar Creek, and Smithville all report over 11 months of inventory, while Austin proper has seen its inventory level increase 36.8% year-to-date to nearly 6 months.

The year-to-date supply-demand gap is one of the largest ever recorded. From January through June, 28,692 new listings have entered the market, a 27.5% increase above the 25-year historical average and 4.0% higher than last year. Meanwhile, pending sales have slipped to 21,924, reflecting a 0.3% increase over the long-term average but a 9.5% year-over-year decline. The result is a staggering 6,768-unit difference between new listings and pending sales—the largest imbalance since 2004, when the gap reached 7,383.

This persistent oversupply continues to put downward pressure on prices. The average sold price in the Austin area has declined to $601,737, representing an 11.76% drop—approximately $80,000—since the peak in May 2022. Median sold prices have fallen even further, down 16.36% from $550,000 to $460,000, equating to a $90,000 reduction. When compared to prices from three years ago, the median sold price is down 14.02%, illustrating the depth of this correction cycle.

Market-wide sales velocity continues to lag. Despite an 8% increase in year-to-date closed sales compared to the long-term average, total sales of 14,926 are down 6.6% year-over-year. More notably, sales per capita and sales per Realtor have plummeted, with transactions per 100,000 residents sitting 20.2% below average and per-agent sales down 24.4% compared to historical norms. These figures highlight how, despite record listing volume, actual buyer activity remains constrained.

A closer look at different price tiers reveals that both the high and low ends of the market are experiencing price compression. Properties in the bottom 25th percentile have seen prices decline 4.1% year-over-year, while price per square foot in that segment is down 5.1%. Even the top 25th percentile has not escaped the pullback, with prices down 2.0% and price per square foot slipping 1.2%.

Market health indicators confirm the extent of the buyer-favored environment. The Market Health Index sits at 20.1%, well below the 30% level that indicates a balanced market. The Inventory Stress Index, at 7.1%, also points to elevated buyer leverage, signaling that sellers face mounting challenges in securing competitive offers.

Looking ahead, projections based on historical appreciation trends suggest that recovery to previous peak prices will be a gradual process. Assuming an annual compound appreciation rate of 5.073%—the 25-year average for the Austin market—it would take approximately 46 months, or until March 2029, for the median sold price to return to its former peak of $552,113. This assumes, however, that the current price level of $460,000 marks the market bottom—an assumption that remains uncertain given ongoing market weakness.

The New Listing to Pending Ratio provides further evidence of imbalance. June’s ratio stands at 0.61, meaning roughly 1.64 new listings are entering the market for every pending sale. The year-to-date ratio of 0.66 is well below the 25-year historical average of 0.81, reinforcing the oversupply narrative.

Inventory growth has not been confined to the Austin city limits. Suburban and outlying markets such as Leander, Cedar Creek, Marble Falls, and Lago Vista have experienced some of the steepest inventory gains, with many areas reporting year-over-year increases in Months of Inventory exceeding 50% or more.

In conclusion, the Austin housing market remains deeply entrenched in a correction cycle. With record-high active listings, declining buyer activity, widespread price reductions, and significant supply-demand imbalances, market conditions overwhelmingly favor buyers. While long-term historical trends suggest eventual recovery, the immediate outlook points to continued price compression, extended market times, and increased buyer negotiating power.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 24, 2025.